Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogenscoronavirus. Superforecasting sheds light on the art of prediction the latest book by university of pennsylvania professor philip tetlock shows readers what makes a nimble mind. The list will continue to expand as i continue the quest to become wiser everyday. Jan 09, 2011 nassim nicholas taleb, a wall street traderturned flaneur, is the author of two previous bestselling works of idiosyncratic nonfiction, fooled by randomness and the black swan, on the subject. In the black swan taleb outlined a problem, and in antifragile he offers a definitive solution. Hidden asymmetries in daily life taleb, nassim nicholas on.
In which order should i read nassim n talebs books, or does. As much as i know i should read a wide array of subjects i strongly believe in only reading books that interest and excite me because if it doesnt i dont retain any information i. Abbreviated list of factual and logical mistakes in gregg. Nassim taleb contends that forecasting is not as useful as it seems because noone can even imagine, let along predict, the black swan events that make the largest impact. Micromooc on a paper by taleb and tetlock one manifestation of the ludic fallacy.
Tetlocks expert political judgment 2005 provided extensive detail on their dismal forecasting records. Once upon a time there was a clever young financial professional called nassim nicholas taleb. On the surface taleb and peterson are nothing alike. The other books in the series are the black swan, antifragile, skin in the game, and the bed of procrustes. Obsessive love is the most antifragile thing outside of economics. Explains how we missed the word antifragility in classrooms. The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, the black swan, antifragile, and skin in the game. Tetlock published a landmark book called expert political judgment.
Tetlock, author of expert political judgment theres more about the ways of the real world between the covers of the black swan than in the contents of a dozen libraries. The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets, and more on. Jul 03, 2018 in this episode our guest is the fascinating writer and thinker nassim nicholas taleb, author of the bestsellers the black swan and antifragile. Ideally id like to jump to antifragile, but ive been told black swan should be read as a precursor. Solid book on interventionism, should be mandatory reading in foreign affairs. The hidden role of fooled by randomness summary by nassim nicholas taleb read more. Nassim taleb on risk and robustness the new yorker. Mar 22, 2017 a few days ago nassim taleb wrote on twitter what to look for when choosing books. The following is a culmination of what ive read so far. Taleb tetlock, 20 on the difference between binary prediction and true exposure with implications for forecasting tournaments and decision making research nassim n. I am reading antifragile by nassim taleb and aboslutely love it. May 11, 2010 the black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. Nassim taleb elaborates on the copernican principle, a concept first introduced on farnam street in how to predict everything.
However, taleb holds that events that can be predicted are unimportant, and the. Taleb said trump would be less likely to intervene in events overseas and would try to go with the prevailing winds. The arab spring is not like drawing a card in poker where you are sampling from a welldefined universe, and you have repeated play. Nassim taleb, the polarizing author of bestselling books the black swan and antifragile. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events outliers and humans tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events. There are serious statistical differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yesno type of payoff, the binaries, and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the vanilla. Jun 08, 2010 for the inaugural video in the new yorker currents series, nassim nicholas taleb talks with james surowiecki about the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the future of the economy. But second, because its author nassim nicholas taleb is infamous for angry twitter rants against people who misunderstand his work. He has written some of the most prestigious risk analyst books in the world and is currently the editor in chief of risk and decision analysis. The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas taleb s landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. To return to the coiner of the concept of black swan events, nassim taleb, he believes that the attempts made by tetlock to improve forecasting ability are impressive.
Steve fuller comments on the applicability of taleb s work to academia and discusses just how fragile the academic way of being has become. Given that nassim nicholas talebs books often describe cultural forces shortly. Nassim taleb on choosing the right book masculine books. Nov 17, 2010 in his happily provocative new book of aphorisms, the fiscal prophet and selfappointed flaneur nassim nicholas taleb aims particular scorn at anyone who thinks aphorisms require explanation. The bed of procrustes, by nassim nicholas taleb the independent. The bed of procrustes is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. Nassim nicholas taleb books list of books by author. He has spent his life immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three highprofile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessmantrader, and as a university professor and researcher. I have read one of his books antifragile and liked the concept in general.
Anti fragile is intelligent at its core with so much to give than on the surface. Tetlock, university of california, berkeley, author of expert political judgment. What books explore the world through a hedgehog concept similar. This fascinating academic debate has huge implications for. Philosophical and practical aphorisms incerto taleb, nassim nicholas on. Nassim talebs case against nate silver is bad math facts so. For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy. See all books authored by nassim nicholas taleb, including the black swan.
Nassim nicholas taleb quotes author of the black swan. On the difference between binary prediction and true exposure, with implications for forecasting tournaments and prediction markets on june 26, 20 by admin in academic, general. Taleb you must be doing something right, as far as im concerned. Nassim nicholas taleb is an uncompromizing nononsense thinker for our times. Sure, nassim taleb recommending steven pinker is like the sun rising in the west. A researcher gathered a big group of experts academics, pundits, and the like to make thousands of predictions about the economy, stocks, elections, wars, and other issues. The bed of procrustes by nassim nicholas taleb youtube. Below is a list of some of his most brilliant quotes of all time.
Oct, 2009 in the authors point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics it is unpredictable. The bed of procrustes by nassim nicholas taleb the new. A thesis repeated in his books, backed up by his strategies as an. On the difference between binary prediction and true. Recent readers of nassim taleb who are convinced all forecasting is bs. The hubris of predictions and our perpetual surprise when the notpredicted happens are themes of nassim nicholas taleb s engaging new book, the black swan. Please vote and do not add books taleb has not explicitly recommended. Tetlock2 abstract there are serious statistical differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yesno type of payoff, the. In which order should i read nassim n talebs books, or. He writes books about how unexpected things happen sometimes and how hes much smarter than everyone else. Tetlock ssrn on the difference between binary prediction and true exposure, with implications for forecasting tournaments and prediction markets.
On the difference between binary prediction and true exposure, with implications for forecasting tournaments and prediction markets by nassim nicholas taleb, philip e. On the difference between binary prediction and true exposure, with implications for forecasting tournaments and prediction markets. Here are the personal journal entries i used to record the best lessons from each book. The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. The book can get a little repetitive at times, and could have been shorter. Risk is both precautionary fragility based and evidentiary statistical based.
Nov 03, 2016 black swan author nassim taleb says dont worry about a trump presidency. But, what do you think about his viewpoints when it. A lebanon born scholar, nassim nicholas taleb, is a scholar and writer that focuses largely on probability and risks. His 2007 book the black swan has been described by the sunday times as one of the twelve most influential books since world war ii. The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, antifragile, and the bed of procrustes. Pages in category books by nassim nicholas taleb the following 5 pages are in this category, out of 5 total. While his findings obviously dont apply to me, tetlock demonstrated that pundits and experts are terrible at making predictions. Things that gain from disorder by nassim nicholas taleb. Tetlock paraphrases the argument of critics such as nassim nicholas taleb, the polemical risktheorist whose book the black swan was acclaimed for anticipating the financial crisis. Mr tetlock should have shown the full thread, including this, not just a pic. In the authors point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics it is unpredictable. Despite that, it easy to read while still being informative and highly actionable.
Nassim nicholas taleb and his enemies in the process of becoming rich, famous and outspoken, nassim nicholas taleb the bestselling author of the black swan has accumulated enemies. Is it worth reading the black swan or fooled by randomness. What i learned losing a million dollars by jim paul 4. In which order should i read nassim n taleb s books, or does it matter. The barbell strategy in life and things as the transformation of anything from fragile to antifragile. Im really interested in starting one of nnts books today, just wondering should i start with black swan or fooled by randomness.
Please, no finance or similarly depraved topics, and no journalists. He is the owner of a large personal library containing thirty thousand books, and separates visitors into two categories. Nassim nicholas taleb book recommendations last addition june 2019. Jan 01, 2017 this feature is not available right now. The black swan report on the difference between binary. Jul 11, 2017 if anything they make every topic they approach appear so compelling that i immediately expand my reading list by a dozen books. Tetlock contends that many black swan events were imagined in advance, and that there are also plenty of predictable but important changes that shape the world just as much. Seneca and stoicism as a back door to explain why everything antifragile has to have more upside than downside and hence benefits from volatility, error, and stressorsthe fundamental asymmetry. Nassim nicholas taleb books list of books by author nassim.
Things that gain from disorder, offers 61 reading recommendations in his own words. A note pdf t h e t e c h n i c a l i n c e r t o c o l l e c t i o n 460 pg pdf ethics of precaution. Bestselling author nassim nicholas taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, the black swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. On the difference between binary prediction and true exposure. Nassim nicholas taleb empirical evidence that the boat is safe. If you mean fair in the sense of judiciously weighting the entire work and indicating points of agreement and disagreement, then no.
Is nassim talebs criticism of steven pinkers work fair. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur. I am reading antifragile by nassim taleb and aboslutely. Engaging and enlightening, the black swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that chris. Taleb is the author of the black swan, the book about, as the subtitle puts it, the impact of the highly improbable. If there is a book missing, please leave a comment with a reference. Anyone interested in improving their own forecasts. Nassim nicholas taleb and his enemies conservative home. Taleb has been a hedge fund manager, a mathematician and professor of engineering, but hes found his widest influence as a thinker about risk, randomness and how they influence our lives from the. From the bestselling author of the black swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, nassim nicholas taleb, a book on how some things actually benefit from disorder.
Talebs five volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled the incerto, covers the following books. The impact of the highly improbable, and fooled by randomness. Taleb mentions most of these books in his bibliography, but except for tetlock he doesnt give them their due in his text. Fooled by randomness is a standalone book in nassim nicholas taleb s landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. Nassim nicholas taleb book recommendations 80 books. Nassim nicholas taleb has overplayed his hand this time and is left looking. There are serious statistical differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yesno type of payoff, the binaries, and those that. The impact of the highly improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician nassim nicholas taleb. Had nassim taleb been born in any other period, he would have certainly been put to death, carine chichereau, cotranslator of tbs. If you sat with a pencil and jotted down all the decisions youve taken in the past week, or, if you could, over your lifetime, you would realize that almost all of them have had asymmetric payoff, with one side carrying a larger consequence than the other.